Predictions vs. Results

How did I do on my predictions?  Overall, I’m impressed with myself on most counts, because my Presidential analysis was better than most of the networks and pundits.  The raw comparisons are after the jump, my guess with the actual results next to it in bold.  

 

———

The Verdict:

-PRESIDENTIAL RACE: I missed two states: Indiana and North Carolina.  I had each tilted to McCain by a hair, and instead they tilted to Obama by a hair.  Though, I’ll give myself the benefit of the doubt by saying that I admitted these predictions were on the generous side to McCain.  Also, my % were not bad overall.  I’ll take it.

-SENATE: I was a little less accurate here.  The biggest shock is the apparent win for Alaskan Sen. Ted Stevens.  Last week the man was convicted on several corruption charges.  Not indicted or surrounded in controversy, he was literally convincted.  And yet the voters are sending him back to D.C.   Also, Gordon Smith may have hung onto his OR seat; I think that it a welcome development.  Finally, as predicted the MN race is razor thin.  We are talking 500 votes with 2.4 million cast.  There will be a recount.

-BALLOT INITIATIVES:  I could not have been more wrong.  I missed every single one, often by a wide amount.  I suppose this is reminder that often our predictive abilities are clouded when we are particualrly invested in the outcome.  These mattered to me, and so I also gave my supported side the benefit of the doubt.  The public, of course, disagreed with me on all counts.  The Arkansas adoption ban and CA Prop 8 decision are particularly sad; they’re the tragedies of the night.  The tragedy is that honest, decent, moral, hardworking Americans wake up today with less rights than they had last night…and I can’t come up with a single good reason why.

-ILLINOIS: I got the actual results correct, but I was a bit off on the size of each win.  

So it goes…

 

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Contested States

              My Guess:             The Real Tally:  

Arizona: McCain by 2%            (McCain by 9%)

Colorado: Obama by 6%          (Obama by 7%)

Florida: Obama by 1.5%          (Obama by 1.5%)

Georgia: McCain by 5%           (McCain by 5%)

Iowa: Obama by 11%              (Obama by 9%)

Indiana: McCain by .5% (I think this will be the closest state)     (Obama by .3%)

Missouri: McCain by 1%         (McCain by .3%)

Montana: McCain by 4%         (McCain by 3%)

North Carolina: McCain by 1.5%    (Obama by .2%)

North Dakota: McCain by 2%         (McCain by 8%)

New Mexico: Obama by 7%           (Obama by 14%)

Nevada: Obama by 4%                   (Obama by 12%)

Ohio: Obama by 2%                     (Obama by 3.5%)

Pennslyvania: Obama by 5%         (Obama by 10.5%)

Virginia: Obama by 3%                 (Obama by 4%)

TOAL Popular Vote: Obama by 6.5%   (Obama by 6.5%)

TOTAL EC: Obama 338-200              (Obama 349-173)

 

 

KEY SENATE RACES

Kentucky- McConnell by 5%          (McConnell by 5.5%)

Minnesota- Franken by 1.5%          (Coleman by 500 votes, though there will be a recount)

New Hampshire- Shaheen by 8%    (Shaheen by 7%)

North Carolina- Hagan by 6%         (Hagan by 8.5%)

Colorado-Udall by 13%                   (Udall by 9%)

New Mexico-Udall by 15%             (Udall by 21.5%)

Georgia- Chambliss by 4%             (Chambliss by 3%)

Alaska-Begich by 14%                   (Stevens by .5%) (not officially called yet)

Mississippi- Wicker by 6%             (Wicker by 9.5%)

Oregon- Merkley by 3%                  (Smith by 1.5%) (not officially called yet)

Louisiana- Landrieu by 11%           (Landrieu by 6%)

Virginia- Warner by 23%                 (Warner by 29%)

TOTAL D Senate Pick-Ups: 8 seats      (5-8, depending on resolving the above disputes)

TOTAL D House Pick-Ups: 23 seats

 

 

BALLOT INITIATIVES

California- Proposition 8: Fail by 3%      Pass by 4%

Florida-Amendment 2: Fail by 5%          Pass by 2% (above 60% required)

Arkansas- Act 1: Fail by 12%                Pass by 14%

Arizona- Prop 102: Fail by 1% (this may be wishful thinking)   Pass by 8%

 

 

ILLINOIS

IL-10: Kirk by 1.5%            (Kirk by 8%)

IL-11: Halvorson by 12%   (Halvorson by 23%)

Con-Con: Fail by 7%          Fail by 36%


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