Predictions

Final predictions.  I’ll be comparing these to the actual results as we get them on Tuesday.

Please feel free to post your own thoughts on any of these races…I’m interested in other’s gut feelings.

In general, these predicitions error on the side of generosity to McCain; my instincts insist that most of the toss-up, reliably R states will stay that way. 

*Disclaimer: To simplify and account for the randomness of third party/non-voting, I am only indicating my predicted winner and margin, not the actual % of the vote.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Contested States

Arizona: McCain by 2%

Colorado: Obama by 6%

Florida: Obama by 1.5%

Georgia: McCain by 5%

Iowa: Obama by 11%

Indiana: McCain by .5% (I think this will be the closest state)

Missouri: McCain by 1% 

Montana: McCain by 4%

North Carolina: McCain by 1.5%

North Dakota: McCain by 2%

New Mexico: Obama by 7%

Nevada: Obama by 4%

Ohio: Obama by 2%

Pennslyvania: Obama by 5%

Virginia: Obama by 3%

—

TOAL Popular Vote: Obama by 6.5%

TOTAL EC: Obama 338-200

 

 

KEY SENATE RACES

Kentucky- McConnell by 5%

Minnesota- Franken by 1.5%

New Hampshire- Shaheen by 8%

North Carolina- Hagan by 6%

Colorado-Udall by 13%

New Mexico-Udall by 15%

Georgia- Chambliss by 4%

Alaska-Begich by 14%

Mississippi- Wicker by 6%

Oregon- Merkley by 3%

Louisiana- Landrieu by 11%

Virginia- Warner by 23%

—

TOTAL D Senate Pick-Ups: 8 seats

TOTAL D House Pick-Ups: 23 seats

 

 

BALLOT INITIATIVES

California- Proposition 8: Fail by 3%

Florida-Amendment 2: Fail by 5%

Arkansas- Act 1: Fail by 12%

Arizona- Prop 102: Fail by 1% (this may be wishful thinking)

 

 

ILLINOIS

IL-10: Kirk by 1.5% 

IL-11: Halvorson by 12%

Con-Con: Fail by 7%